Aces WNBA Finals Game 1 Prediction & Best Bets (10/3): Who Will Strike First in Vegas?
The first two rounds of the 2025 WNBA playoffs have been a real reward. Now, only 2 teams stay. Tonight, the very first of a historic matchup pitting the Phoenix Mercury vs. the Las Vegas Aces starts at Michelob Ultra Arena (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN).
It is a historic matchup, as it is the very first best-of-seven WNBA Finals in the league's history. It started with a single champion game in the league's inaugural season in 1997, expanded to a best-of-three series from 1998 to 2004, and was a best-of-five series for the previous 20 seasons.
Now, the WNBA is on par with the NBA and NHL as having a seven-game champion series. And what a time for its beginning, as the quality of basketball in the routine season and in the postseason has been exceptional.
The Mercury and Aces have been a big part of that, and both teams have actually made their place in the champion series.
After winning 27 games in the regular season, Phoenix got rid of in 2015's finalists, the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx, to reach the WNBA Finals for the very first time considering that 2021 and the sixth time total.
The Aces, on the other hand, were bogged down in mediocrity for two and a half months, and the playoffs were not a certainty. But not just did they make the playoffs, they made it in as the No. 2 seed, and after making it through being required to limit by the Seattle Storm and Indiana Fever, are wanting to liquidate a rip-roaring run with a third champion in 4 seasons.
Who will take a 1-0 in Las Vegas? Continue reading for our Mercury vs. Aces Game 1 prediction and best bets and get the best worth odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Mercury vs. Aces Betting Trends
- The Mercury are 9-9 SU and 10-8 ATS as an underdog this season, consisting of 6-6 SU and ATS as a road underdog.
- Phoenix is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS this season when an underdog of 5 or fewer points.
- The under is 13-10-2 in the Mercury's road video games this season.
- The under has hit in Phoenix's last 3 games.
- Las Vegas is 10-6 SU and 8-7-1 ATS this season when preferred by 5 or fewer points.
- The under is 7-3 in the Aces' last ten home games, including three of their 5 home games in the playoffs.
Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Aces to win
In the first two rounds and six series in this year's playoffs, 4 teams lost Game 1 and went on to win the series.
Two of those belong to the Mercury, who decreased 1-0 versus both the Liberty and Lynx and returned to advance. Another belongs to the Aces, who advanced after losing the opener to the Fever.
So, whoever loses tonight should not be too discouraged, particularly with the expansion to a seven-game series.
Which team will that be?
Despite finally putting away the Fever after being pressed to the absolute limitation by an inspired Indiana team, the Aces did show some vulnerabilities in the semifinals.
A'ja Wilson (26.0 PPG) and Jackie Young (20.5 PPG) are balling out in the playoffs, however they require aid if the Aces are to be successful vs. the Mercury in this series.
And as tough as the Fever were to put away, the Mercury will be even more difficult to dispatch. In the last three games against the Lynx, Phoenix outscored Minnesota 87-43 in the 4th quarter and overtime, allowing them to conquer deficits in all 3 games to stun the No. 1 seed.
That stated, the very first 4 Mercury vs. Aces matches this season do merit some factor to consider. Phoenix won the first one at Michelob Ultra Arena on June 15, when Wilson was out due to a concussion. But the Aces won the last 3, including an 83-61 thrashing in the most recent conference on August 21.
But after such a hard-fought series against the Fever, might the Aces battle tonight vs. the Mercury much like they performed in Game 1 vs. Indiana after a draining Game 3 win over the Seattle Storm.
It is possible, but I'm taking them to increase to the celebration tonight.
Mercury vs. Aces Best options
1) Aces -3 (-117 at BetOnline)
I do believe we will see a fairly close game this night, but if you are backing the Aces, the percentages favor a cover.
Through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, just 4 of 20 video games were chosen by three or fewer points. And of the Aces' 37 wins this season, only six have actually been by three or fewer points.
So, if they do win, it will likely be by a minimum of the margin required to cover the spread.
2) Jackie Young Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115 at Bovada) 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105 at Bovada)
For Game 5 vs. the Fever, I backed Young to review 16.5 points and over 26.5 points + rebounds + helps. She did both by some range, scoring 32 points and including a dime of dimes and four rebounds.
While her points amount to is a tick lower tonight, the general PRA is a number of ticks greater, which is not a surprise when Young has taped 19 helps in her last two games.
I'm off of her points tonight, however I'm happy to stick with her PRA, as the Aces require her to keep rolling to survive vs. the Mercury. I could see a 15-point, nine-assist, five-rebound game from her.
Young has scored 16+ points 29 times (in 52 video games) this season, including 6 times in eight playoff video games, but she has yet to score 16+ points in four consecutive video games this season. So, I see boards and helps doing some heavy lifting tonight.
3) Alyssa Thomas Over 16.5 Points (+110 at Bovada)
Thomas's high for points vs. the Aces this season is 17, which she struck when the Mercury lost by 22 in Vegas in August.
But she has actually scored 17+ points in each of her last five video games, including consecutive 20+ point video games to go ahead of and close out the Lynx in the house. At these odds, I'm all too pleased to take her to keep it going.
4) Satou Sabally to Score 20+ Points (+200 at Lucky Rebel)
Benefiting from worth is likewise at the forefront of this play. Sabally has done this twice versus the Aces this season, scoring 22 points in the June win at Michelob Ultra Arena and 26 in an 86-83 loss at PHX Arena on August 15.
She also scored 20+ in each of the Mercury's 3 wins over the Lynx and installed 23 in the Game 3 win over the Liberty in the preliminary. With this and the reality that she has had 5+ rebounds in six of seven playoff games so far both in mind, the over 23.5 for her points + rebounds (which is +105 at Bovada) is also worth an appearance.
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